Mexico and Canada will see a 25% tariff on imports into the U.S. starting on Saturday if President Trump holds to his word.
The memorandum outlining his administration's "America First Trade policy" does not set a specific date that the tariffs will take effect, but rather directs federal departments and agencies with tariff oversight to provide reports and make recommendations by April 1.
After issuing the memo, however, Trump told reporters they would go into effect on Feb. 1, and he suggested days after that an additional 10% tariff on China (because of its alleged role in the fentanyl crisis), as well as possible tariffs and sanctions on Russia related to the war with Ukraine would be imposed.
"The February 1 date for Canada and Mexico still holds," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday, adding that Trump is also "still very much considering" the 10% added tax on China starting Saturday as well.
But will the president actually stick to that date?
"No one knows the answer to this question, and it would be improper to speculate," said Timothy Brightbill, an international trade law expert and partner at the law firm Wiley Rein, speaking during a webinar hosted by the firm last week.
"But the memo does indicate that the administration is going to be smart about this, get its teams across the executive branch in place and do a comprehensive assessment of many of these issues.
"At the same time, it's wrong to assume that nothing will happen before April 1, so don't discount these statements by President Trump as mere posturing, and don't make assumptions. For companies that would be affected by tariffs, hoping and wishing is not a strategy."
According to a recent report by supply chain consultancies Iter Consulting and AIMMS, 38% of US companies are only somewhat prepared for trade policy changes and instead plan to rely on suppliers to absorb increased tariff costs.
"This leaves them vulnerable to unplanned cost surges and supply chain disruptions if suppliers pass on tariff related costs," the report asserts.
And if the tariffs do begin on Saturday, shippers will need to immediately take stock of what goods they have in the supply chain, customs broker Kuehne + Nagel recommended.