A majority of farmers voted for Donald Trump, even though the president-elect's economic agenda is antithetical to the financial interests of American agriculture.
Since the dawn of this century, the world has added 398 million acres of land for the production of food grains, feed grains and oil seeds. Much of that acreage has been in tropical regions. At the same time, population growth in China, a primary buyer of U.S. agricultural goods, has slowed, and its population is aging.
Similar trends can be seen in other countries that have been traditional importers of U.S. goods. We also face major geopolitical events, such as the Ukraine-Russia war, and most resolutions of that war would likely adversely affect U.S. farmers.
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The world has changed. Competition among major producing nations has changed the ability of American agriculture to be a preferred and low-cost provider of grains to other nations.
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Against this backdrop, one must ponder the question of how an isolationist foreign policy and the use of heavy tariffs could possibly lead to anything other than serious adverse consequences for our U.S. agricultural sector. History teaches us lessons, and sadly we often forget them while drunk on the political cocktail of the moment. During the first Trump presidency, significant tariffs were imposed on China. This led to major negative impacts on U.S. farmers.
What did the government do? The Trump administration created an ad hoc disaster relief program that paid billions to U.S. farmers. "Ad hoc" is just a shiny term for an administration not being able to get its act together to have a consistent and logical approach to setting policy. It is akin to government by chaos -- going from one fire drill to another.
Trump was elected based on many promises, one of which was to "drain the swamp." There is a lot of chatter about reducing government outlays for all sorts of programs. Trump wants to put America "first."
Setting aside political differences, the reality is that America is not an island. It is an important part of the larger world. Withdrawal from engagement with other nations, whether in the context of trade or overall foreign relations, cannot lead to good consequences for America's economic security, nor for our nation's ability to play a strong role in maintaining a stable and peaceful world.
My fellow farmers, it is time for a reality check. We face way more than a theoretical risk of losing a large share of the markets for our grains and livestock. Don't count on that brown envelope from Uncle Sam in your mailbox to bail you out from hardship. From the extensive reading that I have done on the topic of the economic impact of Trump's tariffs, no credible economist paints any picture other than one of significant detrimental consequences to our agricultural sector.
The same is true for many other segments of the economy.
America has to maintain a global perspective -- rather than one that stops at our shores -- to stay competitive and to remain in its role as a world leader. The proposed paths of Trump's next presidency are antithetical to those roles.
Palen is a Kansas native and a fifth-generation farmer and agriculture consultant in Colorado and Kansas. He wrote this for the Kansas Reflector, and it was distributed by the Kansas City Star and Tribune Content Agency.
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