Goldman Sachs (GS) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.

Over the past month, shares of this investment bank have returned -1.2%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.2% change. During this period, the Zacks Financial - Investment Bank industry, which Goldman falls in, has lost 2.6%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?

While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.

Rather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.

We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

For the current quarter, Goldman is expected to post earnings of $7.88 per share, indicating a change of +43.8% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.6% over the last 30 days.

For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $37.15 points to a change of +62.4% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -0.2%.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $42.86 indicates a change of +15.4% from what Goldman is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +0.5%.

With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Goldman.