Donald Trump won the presidency just a few short weeks ago. No one in living memory has witnessed a president-elect's pre-inauguration takeover, as we see now with world leaders clamoring to kiss the ring. We've witnessed a fundamental shift in leadership, geopolitical realities (the fall of the Assad family and its effect on Russia and Iran among the most interesting), and most importantly, our national attitude and pride that has shifted from a Biden administration, which depressed millions, to one of hope and change for tomorrow. Except it is Trump bringing hope and joy, not the usual suspects!
The non-partisan Consumer Confidence Index dropped from over 130 before Biden's presidency to as low as 97.6 earlier this year. It has now rebounded since the election to over 110 and is climbing. Historically, the time between an election and an inauguration is a period of great optimism that extraordinary things can be accomplished.
How Trump navigates Russia and China over the next four years will determine America's success as a world power. While America's pizza pie is elastic and frequently grows, our enemies tend to see the world as a zero-sum game, with them winning and us necessarily losing. That's the reality.
We need a scoreboard to help us better understand our adversaries' strengths and weaknesses and as the first step in plotting our winning strategy. Here are some vital metrics that compare and contrast the U.S., Russia and China:
Russia, China and pipsqueak Iran have us squarely in their sights, with every department and lever they control focusing on controlling narratives and end results designed to weaken us and strengthen them. Traditionally, Russia and China could be played off one another and were not as "chummy" as we see them now. Key factors contributing to this shift include:
It's this first bullet that reveals the more significant story. Like some Western movie from the '50s, the sheriff tells the bad guy, "This town isn't big enough for the both of us." Russia and China understand that the world is not large enough for them to prosper while we remain a superpower. "Curses, foiled again" will always be their refrain when the natural superiority of a system of free people opposes totalitarian regimes. It's an unequal fight. The Soviet Union imploded when its command-and-control economy could not keep up with the West, particularly America, which was engaged in a new arms race featuring the novel "Star Wars" technology the Soviets could not match. The end for them came quickly after that. Putin has learned that lesson and does not plan on beating us economically or socially.
If there were but a single facet of Russian President Putin's psyche controlling all his plans, actions and desires, it would be his singular force of will to achieve his objectives through fiat. His Duma, close associates and the courts all pale in comparison to him. They defer to Putin and are mindful of his single-minded vision for creating a new Russian Empire. Russia is effectively a one-man country. History, at least for the last several hundred years, has been unkind to dictators; whatever they call themselves, we would be wise to remember that as we formulate our strategy.
Similarly, Beijing, while understanding the danger to its ambitions that an American superpower represents, approaches the issue differently. China remains a communist country that doctrinally accepts the premise that communism cannot exist juxtaposed against pluralistic/hedonistic and free countries. Ultimately, they must conquer the rest of the free world. For the moment, Russia and China share the same common enemy. However, while Russia is ready to challenge NATO and the West today, China has broken down the problem of American world hegemony by focusing on the influence and control of its hemisphere as its logical first step.
Just as Muslims see pushing America out of the Middle East, China's leaders see all of their hemisphere as their divine right and is developing the means, political alliances and national identity in pursuit of that vision. Australia, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and many other nations in the region see China's ambitions and are pushing back against the threat of an ascendant, on-the-march China.
Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are each part of the same problem. These four nations cover for each other and provide mutual support (North Korea has shipped 6 million 155 mm rounds for use in Ukraine so far), and they must be dealt with like the cancer they represent. We should not try to appease them or show weakness. For 20 years, Russia, China and Iran have been actively co-opting other nations. Sometimes with gold and silver, as China does with its Belt and Road Initiative, or through coercion, subversion, or war as Iran and its proxies have, even filling the vacuum the U.S. left in Iraq and Afghanistan.
If he plays his cards right, Trump inherits a table set for him in a way that could usher in a new Renaissance for America on the global stage. Biden's exit has already occurred; America's next Golden Age could be upon us!